Bernanke Testifies; Says Nothing

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the Senate Banking Committee today, presenting the Fed’s semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress; he said nothing. That is to say, he said nothing that would provide any insight into the reasoning that is guiding him and his colleagues on the FOMC in their decisions about monetary policy.

Bernanke dryly presented the basic facts about the current status of the US economy and what he, somewhat laughably, refers to as a recovery. But even he acknowledges its weakness, while disclaiming any responsibility for that weakness.

However, those more hermeneutically astute than I in teasing out the hidden or obscure meanings from Bernanke’s pronouncements found in his reference to the risk of deflation a hint that Bernanke and other like-minded members of the FOMC are poised to launch a new round of quantitative easing, but are waiting for more evidence of deflation risk before inviting the criticism of opponents of monetary easing (both inside and outside the Fed). That is the optimistic spin on Bernanke’s testimony.

Here is the semantic commentary of hermeneutist Kathy Lynn.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony before the Senate triggered widespread volatility in currencies. When Bernanke first spoke, the U.S. dollar soared against all the major currencies because Quantitative Easing was not mentioned as a possible tool to stimulate the economy. Based on his prepared remarks, Bernanke is clearly frustrated with the pace of recovery, but he deliberately stopped short of mentioning more QE, because he knew that doing so would spark speculation of action in August, a decision that they were not prepared to make.

However, as the question and answer session began, it quickly became clear that Bernanke would not be able to avoid discussing his plans for monetary policy, and more specifically Quantitative Easing. About 20 minutes into the Q&A session, Bernanke admitted that they have a range of possibilities for more easing, including more QE, using the discount window and cutting the interest rate on excess reserves. Their challenge right now is figuring out whether the “loss of momentum in the economy is enduring.” However, as the evidence shows, there is “frustratingly slow” progress on joblessness and a modest risk of deflation. This means that while August is out, QE3 is still an option for September.

When the dust settled, investors realized that nothing Bernanke said today removed the risk of additional stimulus and for the currency market this means there is no justification for a dollar rally. If anything, Bernanke’s concerns about deflation should tell us that the central bank remains in easing mode. FOMC member Pianalto spoke after Bernanke’s testimony, and she confirmed that the economy needs “highly accommodative monetary policy.”

Bernanke’s noncommittal comments on QE3 are consistent with the central bank’s strategy of biding their time until there is unambiguous evidence that another round of asset purchases is necessary. Two more months of job growth less than 100k and another month of negative retail sales could do the trick.

I hope that she’s right.  And perhaps that is why the S&P 500, after falling about 8 points in the first hour of trading, later recovered to close up about 10 point on the day.

Perhaps, in view of recent discussions about the Hodrick-Presoctt filter, a useful question to put to Bernanke at the press conference after the next FOMC meeting would be: “Chairman Bernanke, what is your estimate of the current gap between current output and potential output?” If he acknowledges the existence of a gap, a follow-up question might:  “Given the Fed’s dual mandate, what obligation, if any, do you believe that the FOMC has to take action to reduce that gap?”


6 Responses to “Bernanke Testifies; Says Nothing”

  1. 1 Steve July 17, 2012 at 7:08 pm

    Schumer: and you certainly agree unemployment is too high and sticky andpite false, two false starts, we’re having a much rougher time than we ever imagined getting unemployment down.

    Bernanke: yes, that’s true.

    Schumer: so get to work, mr. chairman.

  2. 2 David Glasner July 19, 2012 at 9:48 am

    Steve, Thanks for the link. Very revealing clip.

  3. 3 Tas von Gleichen July 22, 2012 at 5:49 am

    We already have QE going one without having it officially announced. There are no indication that the economy is going to get any better.

  4. 4 Jesica September 13, 2012 at 1:50 am

    Monetary policy is an ineffective approach. In fact, the impact of this was discussed by Ed Butowsky in his article, “Obama Chose Monetary Policy – And You’re Feeling It”.

  5. 5 David Glasner September 14, 2012 at 10:04 am

    Tas, We shall see. But the stock market seems to agree with me, not you.

    Jessica, Thanks for link, but I don’t pay any attention to Ed Butowsky.

  1. 1 Two Cheers for Ben « Uneasy Money Trackback on September 13, 2012 at 6:52 pm

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About Me

David Glasner
Washington, DC

I am an economist in the Washington DC area. My research and writing has been mostly on monetary economics and policy and the history of economics. In my book Free Banking and Monetary Reform, I argued for a non-Monetarist non-Keynesian approach to monetary policy, based on a theory of a competitive supply of money. Over the years, I have become increasingly impressed by the similarities between my approach and that of R. G. Hawtrey and hope to bring Hawtrey's unduly neglected contributions to the attention of a wider audience.

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